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Perfect batch confounding

When condition IS the batch

The stated claim

“GENE_1999 is up-regulated in condition A vs B — the effect looks strong and clean.”

Does not survivebenchmark case C1_batch_perfect

Deciding evidence

Cramér's V between condition and batch = 1.00 — condition and batch are perfectly aliased.

Confound sentinel: batch/condition confounding. The evidence is a re-derivable association statistic, not a model opinion.

If every A sample was run in one batch and every B sample in another, the biological effect and the batch effect are mathematically indistinguishable. No amount of downstream modelling can separate them — the design itself is the problem.

What the engine does

  1. The claim looks pristine

    A large, consistent fold-change with a tight p-value. Nothing in the result table hints at a problem.

  2. The sentinel measures the design

    VERITAS computes the association between the condition label and the batch label. Cramér's V comes back at 1.00 — perfect aliasing.

  3. The design-matrix batch model cannot rescue it

    Adding batch to the design matrix (~condition + batch) yields a rank-deficient model: the effect is unidentifiable. There is no defensible analysis choice that separates the two.

  4. Verdict: does not survive

    A severe structural confound (V ≥ 0.9) forces RED. The certificate carries the exact statistic so anyone can re-derive it.

What the scientist does next

The scientist learns the experiment must be re-run with batches crossed against condition — the claim cannot be salvaged by analysis alone.

Verify your own finding

Run a bundled sample of this exact failure mode in the console, or open the validation atlas to see how it is graded.